Week Ahead

It will be a busy week in US with all eyes on January’s job report, ISM PMI surveys, foreign trade balance, construction spending and factory orders. Elsewhere, China’s markets are scheduled to open on Monday after an extended Lunar New Year closure following the coronavirus outbreak, while central banks in Australia, India, Brazil and Russia will be deciding on interest rates. The economic calendar also includes Eurozone retail trade, Germany factory orders, China trade balance and Caixin PMIs, Japan household spending, Australia foreign trade and retail sales; and Hong Kong GDP.

The US will be publishing its highly anticipated jobs report, with market forecasts pointing to a payroll increase of 165 thousand in January, after a smaller-than-expected 145 thousand rise last month. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to point to another month of contraction in manufacturing activity during January; while the Non-Manufacturing PMI will probably pick up slightly from the previous month. Other notable publications are foreign trade balance, construction spending, factory orders, nonfarm productivity and labor costs, ADP employment change, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit PMIs.

Elsewhere in America, the most awaited releases include Canada employment figures, trade balance, Ivey and Markit PMI surveys; Mexico inflation rate, Markit Manufacturing PMI, business and consumer confidence, and auto output; and Brazil inflation rate, foreign trade, Markit PMIs, industrial and car production. Also, the central bank of Brazil will probably leave interest rates unchanged when it meets on Wednesday even after the real hit a fresh record low against the dollar on Friday as the coronavirus crisis deepened.

Britain is officially out of the European Union after 47 years of membership of the bloc. Negotiations on the new UK-EU relationship will start only in March, and until the end of the transition period in December the UK will stay in the single market and customs union. Meanwhile, investor focus turns to Markit PMIs, new car sales and Halifax house price index. Elsewhere in Europe, final estimates of Markit PMI for the Eurozone, Germany and France will be published while Italy and Spain will release preliminary readings. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone producer prices and retail trade; German industrial production, factory orders, Construction PMI, foreign trade; France industrial output, trade balance and nonfarm payrolls; Italy retail sales and inflation; Spain industrial output; Switzerland consumer confidence and Manufacturing PMI; and Turkey inflation rate. Russia fourth-quarter GDP growth will also be keenly watched, alongside the central bank’s interest rate decision on Friday, with markets anticipating a 25bps rate cut.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on China’s markets, which are scheduled to open on Monday after an extended Lunar New Year closure following the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. Important data to be published include trade balance and Caixin PMIs. In Japan, the Jibun Bank will be releasing its final PMI figures, household spending, and December’s leading indicators. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will hold their monetary policy meetings, but no changes are expected. Other key data for Australia include trade figures, retail sales, building permits, HIA new home sales, Ai Group indexes, final CommBank PMIs; while in India analysts will be waiting for Markit PMI surveys.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand building permits and employment figures; Hong Kong fourth-quarter GDP growth, retail trade and Markit PMI; South Korea and the Philippines inflation rates; Malaysia unemployment; and Indonesia fourth-quarter and full year GDP growth, and inflation. Central banks in the Philippines and Thailand will decide on interest rates.

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